martes, 30 de noviembre de 2010

Wikileaks, Goldberg y el separatismo

Desde algunas semanas el sitio web Wikileaks está repartiendo las confidencias que la diplomacia norteamericana acumula como producto del espionaje desarrollado en los países donde tiene representación.

250 mil documentos secretos, avergüenzan a Estados Unidos, revelando que sus embajadores, antes que diplomáticos, son espías. La mayoría de los cables, datan de los últimos tres años hasta febrero pasado.

Si es así, entre los 1.500 informes secretos salidos en 2008 de la embajada norteamericana en Bolivia, podrían contener detalles relativos al proceso separatista que Philip Goldberg, coordinaba activamente, junto con los separatistas de la “media luna” y su principal operador, el mercenario Eduardo Rozsa Flores.

La boca se hace agua, al pensar que de alguna forma, los medios de comunicación alternativos de Bolivia puedan acceder a esos documentos y darlos a conocer. Los otros, los medios que ayudaban al separatismo, no los buscarán nunca y menos para difundirlos.

Tienen que existir tales documentos, porque Goldberg no actuaba sólo, sino en coordinación con la CIA, la DEA, USAID y otros organismos dedicados al espionaje. Por eso, los separatistas actuaban con soberbia y seguridad de lograr la creación de un nuevo Estado en América Latina.

Por esa seguridad, la logia “Nación Camba” se atrevió a escribir al Secretario de Naciones Unidas, advirtiéndole para admitir al nuevo país que pronto se crearía en esta parte del continente. Poco antes del golpe cívico-prefectural el entonces presidente del Comité Pro Santa Cruz, Branko Marinkovic, dijo a las madres de los unionistas que se derramaría la sangre de sus hijos de manera “responsable”.

“La Torre” era el lugar donde se coordinaban las acciones para dividir Bolivia. Contaban con 42 millones de dólares, que hasta el momento no se sabe de dónde provenían, aunque un informe de Estados Unidos, señala que en 2010 Washington gastó más de 80.100 millones de dólares en su infernal telaraña de espionaje mundial.

De esa monumental suma 53.100 millones de dólares estuvieron destinados a inteligencia no-militar, a cargo de la CIA y 27.000 millones para operaciones del Pentágono. Con esos datos, se explica la gran cantidad de Ong’s organizadas por USAID en Bolivia.

Wikileaks, eligió esta vez, a los periódicos El País de España, The Guardian de Inglaterra, The New York Times de Estados Unidos, Le Monde de Francia y la revista alemana Der Spiegel para difundir la documentación. Casi con desesperación, la Secretaria de Estado Hillary Clinton, intenta evitar su socialización, negociando con esos medios.

Los secretos de la diplomacia norteamericana están quedando al desnudo, en tanto que los gobernantes sobre todo de Latinoamérica, tendrán la ocasión de conocer cómo se conspira desde las embajadas norteamericanas.

El cometido casi policial de las embajadas, sale a la luz pública para conocimiento de la opinión pública internacional y vergüenza del imperio. A través de esos informes, se sabe ahora que Estados Unidos, ordena a sus diplomáticos la recolección de inteligencia, al tiempo de realizar tareas de espionaje.

Los informes relativos a Bolivia, son importantes para los bolivianos, sobre todo si entre ellos están contenidos relativos a la conspiración que se desarrollo desde la embajada de Estados Unidos y que disminuyó con la expulsión de Philip Goldberg, el año 2008.

Gobierno: Archivos de Wikileaks dan la razón a Evo sobre injerencia de EEUU

Para el Gobierno la revelación de los archivos clasificados como "confidenciales" del Departamento de Estado de los Estados Unidos con relación a su política internacional que fueron difundidos por las páginas del Wikileaks, dan la razón a las denuncias hechas por el presidente Evo Morales.

El portavoz del Gobierno Iván Canelas, afirmó que las revelaciones contenidas en más de 1.200 archivos secretos sobre Bolivia "no son una novedad", al señalar innumerables ejemplos en el país de cómo la Embajada de los Estados Unidos tuvo injerencia en asuntos internos.

"Lo que ha pasado ahora con la información que se ha generado a nivel mundial, es una ratificación y confirmación de lo que Estados Unidos ha venido haciendo durante todos estos años, no sólo con Bolivia sino con todos los países y lo que el Presidente Evo Morales ha denunciado es cierto y estos hechos están ratificados por la información que está dando vueltas al mundo", dijo en entrevista a radio Panamericana.

A manera de ejemplo Canelas refirió la presunta injerencia del embajador Philip Goldberg en intentos desestabilizadores, así como acusar a la DEA y USAID de usar recursos de la cooperación para promover escenarios de conflictos sociales en Santa Cruz, Sucre, Pando y Beni el año 2008.

"Hay muchos ejemplos de cómo en Bolivia, Estados Unidos siempre ha intentado tener una descarada injerencia para que incluso se aplique una serie de medidas que no eran favorables a los bolivianos, sino a los intereses políticos estadounidenses. De estos hay muchos ejemplos", sostuvo Canelas.

Las declaraciones del vocero de gobierno surgen luego que la red Wikileaks difundiera más revelaciones entorno a las relaciones de la presidenta de Argentina Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, con el Gobierno de EEUU y la presunta injerencia para persuadir a Evo Morales de resolver la controversia diplomática con la embajada de los EEUU en Bolivia.

"Si fuese verdad lo que publican los medios de la Presidenta Cristina Fernández, imagínate como utilizan a los presidentes y estamos hablando de acciones diplomáticas, porque las otras son más graves", dijo.

Canelas recordó la expulsión del embajador Philip Goldberg y las agencias de cooperación USAID y la DEA del país, por considerar que esas instituciones usaron su injerencia para intentar "desestabilizar" el gobierno de Evo Morales.

"En Bolivia se expulsó a un Embajador que estaba conspirando contra la democracia, una acción fuerte pero digna que se tenía que hacer porque el embajador de EEUU estaba conspirando con gente que estaba preparando lo que Bolivia vivió el 2008 la toma de instituciones, todos esos hechos fueron parte de acciones destinadas a desestabilizar y romper la democracia en Bolivia", dijo.

Canelas afirmó que Bolivia está interesada en recomponer sus relaciones diplomáticas con los Estados Unidos, pero "en el marco del respeto a la soberanía, dignidad y auto determinación de los pueblos, sin injerencia de ninguna naturaleza como soberanos, independientes y definir en democracia lo que tenemos que hacer. No necesitamos que nos presiones, desestabilicen a cambio de una cooperación es preferible ser pobres pero dignos con soberanía".

Opositores advierten que revelaciones de Wikileaks pueden afectar más a Unasur que a EEUU

La Paz - Bolivia.- Parlamentarios de la oposición advirtieron el martes que las revelaciones del sitio web Wikileaks pueden afectar más a los países miembros de la Unión de Naciones Suramericanas (Unasur) que a Estados Unidos, porque los documentos secretos de Washington "desnudan" los intereses individuales de varios gobiernos latinoamericanos.

"A Unasur le falta todavía certificado de nacimiento", subrayó el diputado Andrés Ortega, de la opositora Convergencia Nacional (CN), al señalar que las embajadas estadounidenses desplegadas en América del Sur, en algún momento, recibieron la colaboración de líderes y gobiernos que hoy forman parte de ese bloque regional.

Según los documentos secretos de Washington filtrados por Wikileaks, en septiembre de 2008, la presidenta de Argentina, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, aceptó "cooperar" con EEUU para bajar las tensiones que tenía con el gobierno de Evo Morales, que echó al embajador Philip Goldberg, acusándolo de apoyar los planes conspirativos de la derecha boliviana.

"Muchos de los resultados que estamos viendo en Wikileaks tal vez vayan más en contra de los intereses de la izquierda que a favor de ellos, desnudando sus propias debilidades. Hay demasiada información que va generar susceptibilidades", sostuvo Ortega.

Unasur está integrado por Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Perú, Surinam, Venezuela y Uruguay.

Por su parte, el diputado de CN, Javier Leigue, dijo que la posición de la mandataria argentina obedece a la preservación de las "buenas" relaciones comerciales que tiene su país con EEUU.

"Y no me parecería raro que así también otros países, de una u otra manera, hayan puesto sobre la mesa sus buenos oficios para mejorar las relaciones con Estados Unidos", manifestó

Leigue consideró que las revelaciones de Wikileaks sólo sirven para que la prensa haga "bonitos" titulares que venden mucho, pero no afectará seriamente al gobierno estadounidense.

"Seguramente que va a haber algunos conflictos diplomáticos, pero de ninguna manera yo creo que se atrevan a romper con Estados Unidos, porque la mayor parte de los países, especialmente de América Latina, tienen relaciones comerciales y no deja de ser un mercado muy grande y muy importante para sus países", remarcó.

Bolivia afirma que documentos de WikiLeaks demuestran sus denuncias de injerencia de EE.UU.

Los documentos revelados por WikiLeaks confirman la validez de las denuncias que el presidente, Evo Morales, ha realizado sobre la injerencia de Estados Unidos (EE.UU.) en los asuntos internos de Bolivia y Latinoamérica, afirmó este martes el portavoz de la presidencia, Iván Canelas.

Canelas recordó que su gobierno presentó pruebas fehacientes del espionaje del que era objeto por parte de Washington, entre las que destaca una oficina de la Agencia Central de Inteligencia (CIA, por su sigla en inglés) en la sede del Ejecutivo boliviano para informar sobre las actividades del Estado.

"Esta es una confirmación de todo lo que desde hace muchos años el presidente, Evo Morales, ha ido denunciando a todo nivel, lo hizo valientemente, públicamente en algunos de sus discursos", argumentó.

Recordó también las presiones que ejerció la embajada de Estados Unidos en Bolivia, para que la Cámara de senadores aprobara una ley que otorgaba una especie de inmunidad a los ciudadanos estadounidenses en Bolivia, lo que a su juicio convertía al país en una "especie de colonia".

El portavoz presidencial dijo que se pueden dar muchos ejemplos más de la injerencia de Estados Unidos en Bolivia y pidió que las "ex autoridades salgan a la palestra" y digan cómo la embajada de Estados Unidos los presionaba para que designen a autoridades en altos cargos.

"Si no lo hacías te cortaban la cooperación económica norteamericana. Lo que ha pasado ahora con la información que se ha generado a nivel mundial es una ratificación y confirmación de lo que Estados Unidos ha venido haciendo siempre, durante todos estos años, no sólo en Bolivia, sino en todos los países", señaló.

El conflicto entre EE.UU y Bolivia alcanzó su punto más álgido en septiembre de 2008, cuando el presidente Evo Morales, pidió la expulsión del embajador del gobierno de Washington en La Paz, Philip Goldberg, tras acusarlo de injerencia.

La salud de Evo Morales, según WikiLeaks

Otro de los documentos revelados por WikiLeaks muestra una supuesta conversación, que data de 2009, entre el ministro de Defensa de Brasil, Nelson Jobim y el embajador estadounidense en Brasilia, Clifford Sobel. En ella se informaba que el presidente Evo Morales padecía un tumor grave cercano a la nariz.

La información porporcionada por el gobierno boliviano aseguraba que el presidente Morales sufría de una sinusitis aguda, aunque no especificó las causas. Los malestares causados por esta enfermedad obligaron al mandatario a cancelar varios compromisos oficiales.

No obstante, los cables diplomáticos estadounidenses revelan que presuntamente la causa de la sinusitis estaba en un tumor de tal magnitud que incluso el gobierno del presidente Lula ofreció asistencia médica a su par boliviano.

Morales trató su enfermedad exitosamente a través de una operación realizada en Bolivia en febrero de 2009.

De hecho, la información del tumor fue negada rotundamente este martes por Canelas. "De ninguna manera tenía un tumor (...) El presidente fue intervenido quirúrgicamente en la nariz por un problema en el tabique que le provocaba moquera, por médicos cubanos con tecnología muy moderna. De eso se le operó", aseguró el portavoz.

Cable sobre el referéndum constitucional de Bolivia

ID:188540
Date:2009-01-23 13:26:00
Origin:09LAPAZ96
Source:Embassy La Paz
Classification:CONFIDENTIAL
Dunno:09LAPAZ11 09LAPAZ6 09LAPAZ62 09LAPAZ90
Destination:VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLP #0096/01 0231326
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 231326Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9793
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 8742
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 6115
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0078
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 7298
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 4344
RUEHCP/AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN 0330
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 4679
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 6085
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 6963
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 1731
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA 1617
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 000096

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2019
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PREL, PHUM, PINR, ENVR, BL
SUBJECT: BOLIVIA'S REFERENDUM: MARGIN OF VICTORY MATTERS

REF: A. 08 LAPAZ 2606
B. LA PAZ 6
C. LA PAZ 11
D. LA PAZ 62
E. LA PAZ 90

Classified By: A/EcoPol Chief Joe Relk for reasons 1.4 (b, d)

1. (C) Summary: With the January 25 constitutional
referendum rapidly approaching, all signs point to victory
for President Morales and his ruling Movement Toward
Socialism (MAS) party. Although the opposition has made
inroads into the MAS lead, most national polls point to
between 54 and 60 percent support for the proposed
constitution (with one government poll showing 66 percent),
and the MAS appears set to leverage its considerable rural
base to victory. After a series of national news articles
raised questions about significant fraud in the August 2008
recall referendum, the National Electoral Court has taken
pains to advertise the electoral rolls as secure. However, a
recent poll shows less than half of the public shares the
court's confidence, and the opposition believes significant
electoral fraud is likely. While cheating seems unnecessary
to secure victory for the MAS, padding their lead would give
the party leverage in congressional negotiations regarding
legislation implementing hundreds of vague constitutional
clauses. Opposition leaders continue to fear the MAS will
use any stalemate in these negotiations to close congress and
institute rule by decree. At both the national and regional
levels, the margin of victory matters. A landslide for the
MAS nationally, or large victories for the opposition in the
eastern departments, could spark more conflict. End summary.

- - - - - - - - - - - - -
MAS Victory Seems Assured
- - - - - - - - - - - - -

2. (C) With the January 25 constitutional referendum rapidly
approaching, all signs point to victory for President Morales
and his ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party.
Although the opposition has made inroads into their lead,
causing the MAS to tone down its rhetoric, national polls
point to between 54 and 60 percent support for the proposed
constitution. (One government poll shows the "yes" vote
winning by 66 percent.) However, many polls downplay or
ignore the MAS' rural base. Almost as importantly, the MAS
seems prepared to take at least five of the nine departments,
including La Paz, Potosi, Oruro, Cochabamba, and Pando, with
Beni a distinct possibility. If the MAS can win at levels
similar to their August 2008 referendum victory (i.e. 67
percent or more) and can make inroads into the "Media Luna"
or eastern half of the country, they will have much more
leverage in upcoming congressional negotiations over
implementing legislation.

- - - - - -
Polling Data
- - - - - -

3. (C) Polling data has varied widely over the past two
weeks, due to a combination of a tightening race and polling
methodologies (i.e. city vs. rural). Recent national polls
by Gallup and Apoyo within the last week show approval for
the constitution with a much slimmer lead than many expected,
ahead only 48 to 42 percent and 49 to 43 percent,
respectively. Ipsos and Mori both conducted polls of capital
cities and both found the "yes" vote ahead, with Ipsos
showing a 59 to 35 percent lead and Mori reporting 60 to 40
percent. However, our contacts tell us all these polls
partially or totally ignored the rural vote, where the MAS
has much of its base. A poll by Observatorio de Gestion
Publica, publicized by government-friendly Radio Patria
Nueva, marked the constitution's lead at 66 percent, versus
31 percent against. Some estimate a six percent "bump" when
the rural vote is included.

4. (U) Polls showing a breakdown
by city or region indicate
the constitution will easily win in at least four
departments: La Paz, Potosi, Oruro, and Cochabamba, likely
with at least 70 percent support in each. The MAS has a
distinct chance to capture both Pando and Beni as well. In
Pando, the Observatorio poll shows Pando department split
evenly, and the Ipsos poll shows the capital city of Cobija
supporting the constitution by a ratio of 64 to 36. Polling
data for Beni has been more scattershot, but although its
capital city of Trinidad is firmly against the constitution,
by as much as 88 percent, the larger city of Riberalta is
leaning for approval of the constitution. The Observatorio
poll shows Beni evenly split as a department.

- - - - - - - - - - - - -
Rural and Indigenous Role
- - - - - - - - - - - - -

5. (SBU) Although the opposition is making a mighty effort
across the country to rally against the constitution, the
forces of inertia seem to be conspiring against them,
particularly in the form of a largely uneducated rural base
in the Altiplano. Leading daily La Razon interviewed several
community leaders from the Altiplano, and their supporters,
and reported on January 18 that neither the leaders nor the
supporters had read the Constitution. Instead, the repeated
message was that rural communities would take their marching
orders from the MAS, and vote for the constitution. According
to the Ipso poll of capital cities, only four percent of
respondents said they had read much or all of the
constitution, 45 percent of respondents said they have read
some, and 50 percent said they had read none of the draft
text. In the countryside, the number of those reading the
constitution is much lower. Post suspects disinterest, blind
faith in Evo Morales' political project, and illiteracy,
despite the Cuban literacy program, all play a role. In
addition, the sheer volume of the 411-article constitution
probably scares some potential readership away.

6. (C) However, despite the overall level of MAS dominance
among campesinos and indigenous voters, some opposition does
exist, albeit for a variety of reasons. The xxxxxxxxxxxx, has tried to rally
support against the MAS and the proposed constitution (Reftel
A). In a meeting with PolOffs, they lamented the way the MAS
had "cheated" and "fooled" campesinos into believing Morales
was himself truly indigenous or cared about indigenous
issues. Although they held a national meeting on January 17
and tried to reach out to the press, they sounded defeated
when they acknowledged that the MAS, through a combination of
funding and pressure on local social and business leaders,
held a "vertical control" in the countryside that would be
difficult to break. They also noted rural communities tended
to vote in blocks, supporting one political party until they
discarded it to vote en masse for another.

7. (C) Going in a completely different direction, some rural
social groups and far-left leaders, such as Achacachi Mayor
Eugenio Rojas and El Alto City Councilor Roberto de La Cruz
also publicly recommended voting against it because it was
seen as not revolutionary enough. They criticized the
government for making too many concessions to the opposition
during the constitutional compromise reached on October 21,
including the agreement to not make land reform retroactive.
However, they have a relatively small following, and some,
like de La Cruz, eventually reversed course as the projected
MAS margin of victory shrunk in January. Edgar Patana,
leader of the regional workers union (COR), other El Alto
union leaders, and the majority of social groups have
recommended voting for the constitution.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Opposition Feisty, But Realistic
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

8. (C) The opposition has not given up, but seems to be
battling
more to limit the margin of defeat than to win. In
Santa Cruz,xxxxxxxxxxxx
told EmbOff that polls show an overwhelming victory for the
"No" vote in Santa Cruz, but that he is worried about the
opposition's goal of winning in five of Bolivia's nine
departments (Reftel E). Although a current
privately-commissioned opposition poll showed the
constitution ahead by a margin of only five points, 39 to 34
percent (with 20 percent undecided), opposition alternate
xxxxxxxxxxxx doubted the opposition would be able to
win the referendum outright even under the most optimistic
scenario. He predicted that Morales would succeed in
personalizing the constitution as "Evo's constitution" and
leverage his cult of personality. Ultimately xxxxxxxxxxxx was more
concerned with the margin of the opposition's defeat and
discrediting the results of "any election that uses this
voter roll" (Reftel C).

9. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx has been
criss-crossing the country with opposition xxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxx, campaigning against the proposed constitution, but
also building a foundation for a likely run for the
presidency. xxxxxxxxxxxx claimed opposition leaders put aside
jockeying to be the 2009 opposition unity presidential
candidate in the final days of the "no" campaign to "attack
the government from three sides:" the prefects (governors)
who been traveling around the Media Luna to show &they are
not afraid" of government threats to arrest them and
galvanize support in opposition departments, a group of three
presidential contenders to show opposition unity and
xxxxxxxxxxxx, who is used for more cerebral attacks on the CPE
and to &dismiss the governments mythology that they
exclusively represent the indigenous.8 xxxxxxxxxxxx noted that
opposition parties Podemos and MNR are playing a deliberately
muted role, recognizing that their unpopular association with
the &old regimes8 would play into MAS strategy. "Political
parties are bad words in Bolivia," xxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxx La
Paz-based group of mostly young professionals who focus on
issues and distance themselves from the party moniker. "We
need parties, but we need to start from scratch, without the
old leaders. This will take time."

10. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx told
PolOff the opposition is chipping away at the MAS referendum
lead despite the government's leviathan advantage in
resources by de-personalizing the constitution and
"convincing people on the street that is not in their best
interests." Although he conceded the "no" campaign would
ultimately be a losing effort, he cited the emerging feud
between Morales and Church, corruption charges against
government officials, and the increasingly precarious economy
as emerging factors in December and January that created an
opposition "surge" after "we were so depressed" in the fall.
xxxxxxxxxxxx said that the government's newfound mobilization of
congressmen and deputies to challenge the opposition view on
television and radio shows is proof of government panic.
"Before they just thought they could ignore us (and win),"
said xxxxxxxxxxxx. "They said there was no opposition." xxxxxxxxxxxx
agreed, and added that this is playing into the opposition's
hands, because they "are forced to defend a constitution they
often know little about." According to xxxxxxxxxxxx has
been challenging MAS supporters to debate him during his
speaking tours and embarrassed Vice Minister of Social Groups
Sacha Llorenti in a January 20 debate when he started talking
in fluent Aymara. He asked the dumbstruck Llorenti what he
planned to do if the constitution passed, since all public
officials will be required to speak one of Bolivia's
indigenous languages. Later he challenged President Morales
to debate him in Aymara, which the president allegedly speaks
poorly.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Fraud, Doubts, and Questions
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -


11. (C) The National Electoral Court (CNE), which will
oversee and ratify the results of the referendum, has
undertaken a public relations campaign to assure the public
of the security of the election rolls, which came under
scrutiny after leading daily La Razon published a series of
articles questioning the validity of the August 10, 2008
recall referendum. Several contacts, including xxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxx, told us the MAS padded their
August referendum victory by five to seven points through
fraud at several levels (reftel C). While many international
observers groups are expected to view the January 25
constitutional referendum -- including the European Union,
the OAS, the Carter Center, the UN, the CAN, the
South-American and Andean parliaments, and UNASUR (septel) --
the depth of the earlier fraud has muted the opposition's
confidence in observers' ability to ensure the results are
fair. Members of the Santa Cruz civic committee told EmbOff
that they have no faith in international observers. The
committee has met with the OAS team already and "told our
side of the story", describing the discoveries of tens of
thousands of false voter cards and the statistical signs of
fraud in areas that managed to vote 100 percent for President
Morales in the August 2008 referendum. However, the civic
committee said that the fact that international observers
blessed the August referendum means they do not expect an
honest review of the constitutional referendum. Civic
committee members also noted that small numbers of observers,
generally based in the city, will not be able to stop
widespread fraud in the countryside, which is where they
believe most of the August 10 fraud took place.

12. (C) In a press conference designed to bolster confidence
in the security of the electoral rolls, National Electoral
Court (CNE) President Jose Luis Exeni presented a PowerPoint
describing the bill of clean health given by the OAS. As
part of the presentation, he showed the number of voters
dropped from the rolls for not participating in prior
elections and the number added during this cycle. While all
departments projected to vote against the constitution had a
net reduction in the voter rolls, including 85,000 Crucenos
and 17,000 Benianos, MAS strongholds including La Paz
(38,000) and Potosi (16,000) saw substantial gains -- a
curious reckoning, considering population and migration
trends to the contrary.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Pando At Center of Storm, Again
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

13. (C) While it is possible the constitution could pass in
Beni, most opposition leaders tell us the MAS has set its
sights on lightly-populated Pando department as its best
chance to win in five departments. By winning the popular
vote and a majority of the departments, the MAS could more
credibly claim to have support throughout the country. Pando
has also traditionally aligned with the opposition, so a
breakthrough win there would send a strong signal that the
strength of the MAS continues to rise. And with fewer than
32,000 registered voters, or less than one percent of the
country's voting population, Pando is the most vulnerable
department to even small amounts of fraud or voter
registration changes.

14. (C) In a conversation with PolOff, xxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxx alleged the MAS deliberately fomented unrest in Pando
in September to justify a military siege, depose Prefect
Leopoldo Fernandez, and arrest opposition-aligned leaders to
swing the balance of power to the MAS in the Senate. Besides
disabling the opposition's ability to campaign by arresting
many of its leaders,xxxxxxxxxxxx alleged the government crackdown
changed Pando's electoral map by causing hundreds of
opposition voters to flee to Brazil while importing 2,000 new
security forces, which xxxxxxxxxxxx claimed were likely MAS voters
from the Altiplano (Reftel B). xxxxxxxxxxxx added
that in the run-up to the August 2008 referendum, Government
Minister Alfredo Rada facilitated the establishment of fake
identities via the police role in issuing national identity
cards (which can then be used to vote). (Reftel C).

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
January 26: What Happens Next?
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

15. (C) xxxxxxxxxxxx told PolOff December 31 that
a general election prompted by passage of the new
constitution requires a plethora of enabling legislation that
the opposition-controlled Senate will block, at least in the
forms likely to be proposed by the MAS (Reftel B). xxxxxxxxxxxx
said the new draft constitution is deliberately vague, which
grants MAS legislators wide discretion to "fill in the
blanks" with new implementing legislation. He also said the
Senate would clash with the government on assigning new
borders for electoral districts, needed for the general
election. xxxxxxxxxxxx added that Morales' MAS party is
already injecting "ridiculous" interpretations of the
constitution into a wide gamut of implementing legislation
that "the Senate cannot in good conscious agree to." He said
Senate rejection of MAS proposals provides a ready excuse for
Morales to dismiss congress for "rejecting the will of the
people" and then have President Morales rule by decree
(Reftel D).

16. (C) Despite the official government position that
President Morales will undergo treatment to correct a
deviated septum immediately following the referendum, several
contacts confirm that the problem is actually a tumor in the
pituitary near the sella turcica and that Morales will travel
to Spain for the operation. xxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxx told us Morales' first choice, Cuba, could not
perform the surgery. Article 238 is also of consequence to
the post-January 25 political landscape. It would establish
that all other government officials must stand down three
months before general elections expected in 2009, with the
notable exception of the president and vice president.
Besides providing the MAS the advantage of ruling during the
campaign, it also ensures leadership cannot pass to the
opposition-controlled Senate. It is unclear why the
opposition waited until the final week before the referendum
to complain about the article or why they accepted it during
marathon sessions in October to arrive at a "compromise
text," which, it should be noted, the opposition agreed to
under duress, with thousands of MAS-aligned protesters
surrounding the congress and threatening violence.

- - - -
Comment
- - - -

17. (C) It is likely there will be some amount of fraud in a
referendum the MAS seems likely to win legitimately anyway.
While it can be difficult to separate fact from fiction, the
Morales administration has a reputation of doing exactly what
they announce they will do. In this case, 66 percent seems
to be the target number, and the MAS is likely to pull out
all the stops to reach that level. With at least two-thirds
support across the country and a minimum of five of the nine
departments under his belt, President Morales would be able
to claim a political mandate to implement the constitution
quickly. Practically speaking, this will put great pressure
on the Congress, especially the opposition-controlled Senate,
to acquiesce in negotiations and accept MAS versions of
implementation legislation. If they do not, Morales and
others in the MAS have spoken of rule by decree. Using
similar logic, Morales could call for early elections to more
quickly advance the "democratic revolution" in Bolivia.
Early elections would also help the MAS avoid dealing with
the quickly-crumbling economy, which would likely be more of
an issue in December.

18. (C) Both sides seem to be angling over the margin of the
MAS victory, not the victory itself. While Morales continues
to predict a victory of up to 80 percent, Vice President
Garcia
Linera tried to manage expectations with a 66 percent
estimate on January 21. The margin matters. If the
constitution gets less than two-thirds support, many
observers feel this would represent a relative defeat,
especially when Morales himself has set such high
expectations. On the other hand, we are equally concerned
that large-margin victories in media luna departments could
lead opposition leaders to ignore the national results and
resume a course for autonomy on their own terms -- putting
them on a collision course with the national government. A
solid but not overwhelming MAS victory, perhaps around 56 to
60 percent, might be the best outcome to keep both sides from
claiming a strong mandate for extreme measures.
URS

Niega Bolivia versión de Wikileaks sobre tumor en la nariz de Evo Morales

El portavoz del presidente Evo Morales, Iván Canelas, desmintió hoy informaciones sobre un tumor en la nariz del mandatario boliviano, revelado por uno de los cables de diplomáticos estadunidenses divulgados por WikiLeaks.

En declaraciones a radio Erbol, Canelas negó que Morales haya tenido el tumor y que ése fuera el motivo por el que se operó la nariz en febrero de 2009.

"De ninguna manera tenía un tumor. El presidente fue intervenido quirúrgicamente en la nariz por un problema en el tabique que le provocaba moquera, por médicos cubanos con tecnología muy moderna. De eso se le operó", aseguró el portavoz.

Según un cable diplomático publicado hoy por WikiLeaks, el ministro de Defensa de Brasil, Nelson Jobim, comunicó al entonces embajador estadunidense en Brasilia, Clifford Sobel, que Morales sufría "un grave tumor".

"El ministro de Defensa confirmó un rumor de que Morales sufre de un grave tumor", reportó el diplomático a Washington el 22 de enero de 2009, lo que, según Jobim, explicaría "por qué Morales mostró estar falto de concentración" en algunas reuniones.

Canelas afirmó el lunes que "no es una novedad" el espionaje de Estados Unidos revelado por las filtraciones de WikiLeaks, que confirman la que calificó de "injerencia descarada" de Washington por medio de sus embajadas.

En twitter